I do not normally trade this pair but I am going to keep an eye on it near term as it sold off hard this afternoon on comments from the RBNZ. They had just cut their rates by 525bp and now they, the central bank, are suggesting more rate cuts or they could start buying long term bonds.
I finished the day flat with a gain of +458 USD. I am exhausted from lack of sleep and ready for a break. I primarily traded the EUR/USD until lunch and took one USD/JPY Short at 99.18. See top image. I don’t normally trade the USD/JPY as I find it less predictable to my methods than the Cable but someone mentioned in a group that it was bouncing on its 200 EMA so I took a look. I don’t usually plot MAs and if I do, I do not pay them much attention. I noticed it hitting or about to 61.8% of the big move on the daily and had just hit highs just over S/R on the hourly. I got in a bit late but took a short 1 mini contract at 99.18 to 98.97. I also scalped one other time 2 mini contracts short for less than 10 pips.
It was not my best day performance wise by any means but was my best day trading FX so far. I have been using very small positions and learning as much as possible. I looking forward to pushing a bit harder and increasing my position size slowly. I have not mentioned in this blog but the primary reason for my interest switch from the S&P Emini ES was in because over the next few months I may have some non-trading related activity that will tie me up during the day hours EST. During those times, trading the EUR/USD and Cable, will offer me an instrument with many of the same price action characteristics and the liquidity needed to trade during the hours of around 4:00 AM to 11:00 AM. The S&P Emini ES only has liquidity during the cash market hours for the US.
The Cable is setting up for a big ambush short after it pierces the 50% on the hourly with a target 1.3228. If this happens it is likely that it will run down to or near yesterday’s low.
We broke through the previous S/R at the pivot. It’s possible but not likely that they run this thing up to 50% fill from Fridays highs on the 1 hour chart. I will set up a bracket short before going to bed for that area.
Profit targets were hit after bouncing back from 1.3200 previous support/pivot area.
I finished the day with a gain of +201 USD. I made 2 trades on the Cable yesterday evening and several in the AM today. Not much happened after lunch until it broke out of channel (blue on 15 min.) and just took a 2 mini contract short position at 1.32 with a tight stop a previous swing high/low off the 15 min. chart. If it breaks above that price level and stops me out, it could easily run up near 1.3350 range (50% retacement from Friday’s high). Note: we moved down into ambush long today on the daily from lows in March and barely touched the 50%. I would expect this t o retested before looking long. This is a bit of a risky very short term trade with a tight stop. If it stops out I will be looking at next ambush short on the 1 hour chart.
The problem with banks buying the assets from themselves…
The big story of this past week was the possibility of the dollar being replaced by the global reserve currency but the reports that this topic will not be discussed at the upcoming G20 summit provided a bit of relief.
I don’t think that the US economic date contributed anything to the rally of the USD as it was mixed. The rally was mostly based on overall weakness coming from European economic reports and the expectation of the ECB cutting interest rates.
Other lesser factors contributing to the rally: the US equity futures trading down and the Japanese buying Yen and selling all other currencies ahead of their March 31st fiscal year end.
The State Senate of Georgia has passed the J.O.B.S. Act of 2009 by a vote of 43 to 7.
For more info:
http://www.tradersteve.com/2009/03/ga-hb-481-hb-482-update.html
I finished the day flat with a gain of +45 USD. I did not really trade today. I only had a 1 mini contract short on the Cable from last night w/ a 20 pip target. I should have widened the target out. The bad news out of Europe coupled with weakness in the US futures helped fuel driving down the Euro hard to a 50% retracement from the run up last week. I also scalped SKF once for a gain.
I finished the flat with a loss of -43 USD. I only traded the Cable 3 times before 10:00 AM for a loss and stopped out of each.
I finished the day flat with a gain of +152 USD. I only made one trade on the Cable today. I scaled into a short position (total 3 mini contracts) right after the run up after Geitner spoke at 10:00 and covered just before the 50% pullback.
HR 1388 Passes the House…
The actual text of the bill:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1388
Link to the status of the bill:
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-1388
I finished the day with a gain of +252 USD. I scalped FAZ in the AM for +0.45 points and I am still holding DZZ. I scalped the Cable several times between 10:15 and 11:30 for 42 pips using 2-3 mini contracts. All of these scalps were on the long side. I have been in fear of a retracement from the move up late last week but the fact that ES was strong today helped maintain overall “long” bias. Unfortunately, I did not trade after lunch and missed some good ambush longs on the Cable…
For a +0.13 point gain. I am out as it looks like we could go lower. I am putting in a limit order for my DZZ position and going for the day. It’s too choppy due to options expiration.
Update from Freedom Works Georgia:
FreedomWorks Georgia has been fighting hard to support H.B. 168, a bill to repeal the Universal Access Fund. The taxpayer funded slush fund has been used and abused leaving taxpayers on the hook for things like a $15,000 dinner and a $20,000 Christmas party!
The intent behind the creation of the Universal Access Fund was positive – keeping rural areas connected to digital services. Unfortunately, the money in the Universal Access Fund has been misused and abused, and has become a slush fund that is unaccountable to the taxpayers! Some of the proposed expenditures are similar to what occurred at the financial institution AIG.
For example, Georgia consumers are subsidizing independent telephone companies who do not meet their financial benchmarks. The 2008 audit of the fund found that one company actually used “their” taxpayer subsidy for a $15,000 dinner and a $20,000 Christmas party! Given the current economic climate, Georgia needs to save its money, or refund money to the taxpayers, not spend it on parties for employees of some businesses.
State Representative Clay Cox (District 102) worked to eliminate this waste of taxpayer dollars and after many letters, emails, phone calls, office visits, and hearings the bill passed the House 123 to 42.
This bill now is in the Senate and we need you to make phone calls to make sure it is voted out of committee next week. It is especially important to contact the Chairman and Vice Chairman of this committee so they will bring it before the committee to vote on next week.
Shafer, David (R-SS 48) Chairman
Johnson, Eric (R-SS 01) Vice Chairman
Harbison, Ed (D-SS 15) Secretary
Butler, Gloria S. (D-SS 55) Member
Henson, Steve (D-SS 41) Member
Hill, Jack (R-SS 04) Member
Moody, Dan (R-SS 56) Ex-Officio
Murphy, Jack (R-SS 27) Ex-Officio
Seabaugh, Mitch (R-SS 28) Member
Stoner, Doug (D-SS 06) Member
Tolleson, Ross (R-SS 20) Ex-Officio
Unterman, Renee S (R-SS 45) Member
Williams, Tommie (R-SS 19) Member gia:
The J.O.B.S. Act bill and the accompanying Ad Valorem Tax bill both moved to the GA State Senate for consideration after overwhelmingly passing in the State House last week.
This week, these bills cleared committee and will be voted on soon by the GA State Senate. If you have not already contacted your State Senator encouraging them to VOTE FOR the J.O.B.S Act of 2009 and the Ad Valorem Tax bill (Senate bill #’s not yet available), please do so immediately because the vote will likely take place within the next few days.
See below for more information:
http://www.tradersteve.com/2009/03/georgia-residents-action-needed-hb-481.html
I finished the day with a gain of +303 USD. I closed my FAZ position and holding a long position in DZZ. I had 11 scalps on the “Cable” with 1-2 mini contracts each (10k-20k) and only stopped out of one for a total gain of +164 USD.
I am finished for the day with a gain of +219 USD. I closed all positions except for FAZ (small). I did get 18 pips short on USD/CAD in the morning and 12 pips short on EUR/USD after 3:15 all using a “mini contract”. It’s the wife’s birthday…so I am out of here!!