I managed to catch 2 scalps on the ES this morning while packing for a gain of +75 USD. I have really missed out on some nice moves on the ES this morning as we made a nice continuation move. I should have got long one contract last night but did not want to have to baby sit it this morning before leaving. Have a great weekend!
Today is my last trading day of the week as we head for a 4 day family weekend in the morning. FOMC days are usually light volume and very erratic trading days as many people stay out of the markets. I traded little and carefully and finished day flat with a gain of +9 USD. I had +52 FX from last night, -96 FX today, closed my AMR and DXO positions for gains and scalped the ES a few times with a loss of 40. My countertrend plays on the EUR/USD got killed. It was NOT a good day to trade. I think that I overtraded due to me not being able trade for the next two days. The next FOMC day I will take the day off. Oh well, I live to fight another day…
The J.O.B.S. Bill of 2009 (HB 481) is now waiting for Governor Purdue’s signature. If you recall, HB 481, a bill that provides tax credits to employers for each unemployed person hired, suspends business “start up” fees for one year, and eliminates the state sales tax deposit, passed both the State House and the State Senate by overwhelming majorities. The accompanying bill, HB 482, which eliminates the state ad valorem tax on business inventory through a statewide referendum, also passed both the GA House and Senate. I encourage you to send Governor Purdue a note indicating that you hope he will sign the legislation.
I was up too early this morning and now I am done for the day. I finished the day holding only a position in DXO and AMR with a gain of +142 USD. I had total FX gains for $12 of which $31 was from last night. I did finish negative FX during the day today and was beat up on EUR/USD but had a good trade on a short USD/JPY before the cash market opened (see chart above) running into 200 EMA and a 50% retracement. I successfully scalped ES several times during the “chop” for $130 and also added to my DXO position and started a small position in AMR.
Here is a webinar for those that have not been able to attend a Fair Tax meeting:
Recently after the O. Administration told Uribe that “they” had a drug problem and the US could not help out, Uribe threatened that they would solve their drug problem by legalizing and then “we” would have the problem. Kinda funny…Uribe should be one of our best allies.
Well after a week of illness, a death in my immediate family and having to help my wife 2 days with an open house, I can say that I am glad to be back trading. I finished the day holding only a small position in DXO with a gain of +446 USD. I had total FX gains for $296 of which $64 were from last night. I was “plugged” in today and scalped the ES several times in the morning and shorted once coming off 865 area after lunch (see chart above). My new trading computer comes in later this week and I will be relieved as it has been a bit challenging trading on two notebooks.
I did not really have a chance to trade as I was in bed sick most of the morning. I did set up a nice ambush short on the EUR/USD before going to bed last night with a limit buy right at the 50% retracement at 1.3007 and set a stop just above the 61.8% retracement. The order kicked off, price moved to the 61.8% to the pip. It hit its -23.8 target perfect for 50+ pips. I tried a couple more scalps and stopped out to finish with a gain of +36 USD. I am not sure exactly why you can not click on my charts and expand. I just noticed this problem and hope to figure it out tonight.
The GBP/USD could have peaked at 1.5067 on Wednesday. Each of the 3 previous peaks on the 4 hour chart show a divergence on the ADX (a sign that the trend is less strong during each wave). We closed on Friday right in the Ambush long area from the last move up from last Friday. If we break down here a bit, the short term trend change will be confirmed by breaking below Price Level 3.
I finished the day flat with a gain of +80 USD. I only traded between 10:00-12:00 and was unplugged the remainder of the day. I had one EUR/USD trade and a handful on the GBP/USD after the early morning sell off. I am still back trading only one mini contract per trade looking to go back to 2-3 minis at a time in a couple of days.
The GA GOP State Convention 2009 is going to be held in Savannah, GA; May 15-16 at the Westin Resort & Spa. For those interested in reserving a room at the hotel, call the hotel directly at 912.201.2000 and be sure to mention that you are with the Georgia Republican Party. The Hotel is directly adjacent to the Savannah International and Trade Center.
I was out of pocket for most of the day and I finished the day flat with a gain of +38 USD. I traded 3 scalps around 8:00 only . I was stopped out of a EUR/USD trade and had 2 shorts on the GBP/USD around the same time after the 6-7 AM run up to 1.5036 (see chart above). The bulls were out there but I still played countertrend for 2 plays 40+ pips. I should have been using 2-3 mini but was only using one as I had been away for a few days. I was only around a couple of hours pre cash market. It looks like the market was a bit choppy and uneventful overall so I didn’t miss much.
I need to purchase a new desktop as the mother board in my main pc is dead. In a couple of days I will be set back up and fully operational and also testing the AT platform from Infinity.
Governor Rick Perry just joined state Rep. Brandon Creighton and sponsors of the House Concurrent Resolution HCR 50 in the support of states. I am glad to see Perry stand out on this issue. Many people are in the belief that the federal government is way over in its “Constitutional” governance of the individual states. HCR 50 designates that all compulsory federal legislation that require states to comply under threat of civil or criminal penalties, or requires a state to pass legislation or loose federal funding, be prohibited or repealed.
I finished the day flat with a gain of +124 USD. I managed two short scalps before lunch on the EUR/USD after its extended move yesterday, above the 200 EMA and into the 61.8 retracement from last Monday (see above). I also took one short at 12:00 the GBP/USD for a scalp. I have not traded for the past several days as I have been busy winding down a work related task. That said, I am hoping to focus a bit more in the near future on trading. Since this obligation has been lifted, I will likely start back trading E-mini futures next week and try to Swing trade spot FX. I need to work on consolidating broker accounts, currently across four, and considering opening an account with Infinity for futures trading. Their commisions are competitive and they offer excellent leverage. I have download their AT platform and opened a demo account. I will do an update to the blog after I have had time to evaluate.
The EUR/USD has been consolidating. I think in part due to the fact everyone is trying to figure out if we are in a bear market rally or not. Thursday and Friday were low volume across the board as Friday was a holiday. The EUR/USD did not quite touch the -23.6% on Friday from the move down on Thursday but precisely hit previous S/R at price level 3 seen on the chart. It’s also worth noting that we bounced of 200 EMA on Thursday. We will likely trade up into area indicated by yellow oval on chart (50% retrace from Thursday). Above this we have a strong S/R level indicated by price level 2 and also the 200 EMA.
I expect that there will be continued overall pressure downward on the EUR due to all of the comments that came out of ECB last week about quantities easing. Essentially, this not much more than printing and injecting cash.
I ran across an eBook, Practical Fibonacci for Forex , written by Ken Marshall and Rob Moubray. It totals 30 pages and explains the Fibonacci numbers, what they are, how the ratios are derived and why they apply in the Forex market. It was also explained how to find entry and exit points using candlestick patterns with clear graphic examples These apply in many markets, particularly in E-mini futures and spot Forex markets. I use Fibonacci retracements primarily and sometimes in conjunction with Fibonacci Fans to find other support and resistance levels and found the examples helpful. It also explained in detail how areas of convergence of different retracements apply yielding areas of potential greater support and resistance. The standard ABCD or 1234 pattern was described with detailed examlpes. Overall, a good resource for those that want to apply Fibonacci Retracements to the Forex market.
Tax Day Tea Parties number almost 2000 planned throughout the country. The message being sent to the Congress and the President is very simple, Stop the spending and suspend the Payroll tax…
In December the EUR/USD pierced the 61.8% ambush short in December and overall trend continued downward. On the daily chart we pierced the 50% but not the 61.8% from the move down from ambush short in December. ADX indicates a slowing trend. There’s still a lot of resistance as in the hourly chart above. We are at price level indicated in yellow (previous S/R), already bounced off 200 EMA days ago and also have resistance from both 61.8% Fibonacci Fan from move down from ambush short in December. A break of this area could be significant to the upside. My bias is to look for ambush shorts to fail on the hourly and 15 after we open.
An interesting EUR/USD setup on the hourly chart, we are in an area of consolidation with retracement confluence of the 50% retracement from lows on Monday, a week ago, to last Monday and with the 50% retracement from the high at 1.3738 on Thursday, a week ago. Second image is zoomed out, larger time frame. The 61.8% retracement of the same price range has proven over the past 10 days to provide significant S/R. There is also some S/R in the range by the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Fans. After a confirmation of a break and trend out of this price level, the bulls could move it to near 1.41 in the near term. It’s likely that it will retrace to around 1.2970, near the -23% retracement target before breaking through overhead resistance. I will post charts of more time frames with analysis when I get time and also discuss some of the funadamentals that may come in to play next week.
I only scapled the Cable 2 times during lunch from 11:00-12:30 and finished flat with a gain of +76 USD. The second scalp was short at 1.3451 2 mini contracts and reloaded with 2 more after 50% from the bounce off the 61.8% of the larger move up on the 1 minute chart.
I was out of pocket for the greater part of the day. Looking back I am glad as the EUR/USD ran up hard and from the looks failed many micro technicals setups for intra day trading. The ECB cut the rate by only 25bp instead of the expected 50bp. I suppose in the short run, this gives them a bit more “dry powder” cut them again… You have to keep in mind that the rally of EUR likely was fueled by traders making position adjustments due to the ffact they discounted for a 50bp move…
Sen David Schafer’s SB 1 – Zero-Base Budgeting Act has passed the Senate and now sits in the House Rules Committee. It is important that we reach out and contact the members of this committee and urge them to pass this legislation. This needs to be done TODAY as the legislation session ends tomorrow. It will be then be passed out of committee so that the full Legislature can vote on it.
This legislation requires all spending be detailed in a budget and not just for new programs. Under the current system, once new spending programs are approved, they are automatically rolled over into succeeding state budgets under the line item, continuation. In this case, there is little focus on whether or not older programs are still needed.
A series of rallies begin in April and the first Fair Tax Rally is at the Jacksonville Landing in Jacksonville, FL, which is scheduled for Saturday, April 11, from 12:30pm to 3:30pm. Several Fair Tax supporters whose names you may recognize will be there including Talk Master Neal Boortz and U.S. House Representative John Linder (R-GA).
I finished the day flat with a loss of -64 USD. I was distracted from trading for the better part of the day with non-trading related activities. I took 2 NZD/USD trades and stopped out of each. I only tried to scalp the Cable a few times, got stopped twice and decided not to take any additional trades for the day. The Cable above was pretty much bound in the price levels shown in yellow above (previous S/R levels).
I have had several people online and a couple from the local Forex Meetup Group ask for more information on Ambush Trades and how to apply them. They work very well in many markets. Here is a video from David Halsey AKA Eminiaddict for those interested in learning.
There was no relief for the labor market in March. In fact, there’s a decent chance that payrolls dropped by the largest amount in more than 60 years… No April Fools.. The dollar is still appreciating against all higher yielding currencies. Do not forget that these days, bad news is positive for the dollar and good news is negative. This is in part because the dollar is primarily trading on risk appetite and not econmomic data.