In December the EUR/USD pierced the 61.8% ambush short in December and overall trend continued downward. On the daily chart we pierced the 50% but not the 61.8% from the move down from ambush short in December. ADX indicates a slowing trend. There’s still a lot of resistance as in the hourly chart above. We are at price level indicated in yellow (previous S/R), already bounced off 200 EMA days ago and also have resistance from both 61.8% Fibonacci Fan from move down from ambush short in December. A break of this area could be significant to the upside. My bias is to look for ambush shorts to fail on the hourly and 15 after we open.

An interesting EUR/USD setup on the hourly chart, we are in an area of consolidation with retracement confluence of the 50% retracement from lows on Monday, a week ago, to last Monday and with the 50% retracement from the high at 1.3738 on Thursday, a week ago. Second image is zoomed out, larger time frame. The 61.8% retracement of the same price range has proven over the past 10 days to provide significant S/R. There is also some S/R in the range by the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Fans. After a confirmation of a break and trend out of this price level, the bulls could move it to near 1.41 in the near term. It’s likely that it will retrace to around 1.2970, near the -23% retracement target before breaking through overhead resistance. I will post charts of more time frames with analysis when I get time and also discuss some of the funadamentals that may come in to play next week.